Said Gafurov

Picture of Said Gafurov

Citizenship: Russia


Gafurov, Said Zakirovich (1967 p.) - Russian economist, orientalist and official as well as a teacher in high school. By origin - Gorky Tatar (mishyar). Candidate of Economic Sciences. Advisor of the Russian Federation. Author of several books and articles. The son of Colonel, Professor Gafurov Shagizanovicha Zucker - professional revolutionary, author of the theory of the creation of the revolutionary armies in developing countries and Gafurova (Khusainova) Anisi Sofovny - professional artist, secretary of the Moscow Union of Graphic Artists. Due to the fact that he made contributions to several malosvyazannyh or completely unrelated areas of knowledge, Gafurov often ironically referred to as "a man of encyclopedic knowledge."

Most interesting works Gafurov for stock analysis theory is trying (usually unsuccessfully) to bring econometrics methods in stock analysis. In addition, he is trying to bring to the analysis of financial statements elements of common sense. For example, Gafurov is trying to deny the right of the cognitive significance of the generally accepted indicator P / E iz-za that, in his opinion, the E - profit in this formula is an indicator, "depending on the immediate environment of the enterprise, the will of the accountant", jokingly repeating the refrain "if the company has a profit, it means that he has a bad accountant, and in some other situations (eg, during the initial public offering) to the enterprise, on the contrary, it is advantageous to show a profit." With respect to conventional EBITDA of Gafurov points out: "It`s artificial, complicated rate ... International audit rules (GAAP and IAS) does not explicitly recommend the use of EBITDA, both violates the basic principles of accounting, but it is just too widespread de-facto problem with EBITDA. is that it blends common sense with the conventions of the accounting point of it is to show how much money a company could theoretically throw servicing its debt, because that depreciation -. it is not the real payments, and the zero profit tax on profits zero "will also in theory.

Since the 1990s, consistently argued [citation needed] that he will create a new "strict" theory of economic forecasting. Until now, no such theory. There is an opinion that it was the honor of Gafurov justify questionable nonergodicity theorem on the stock market (sometimes are called "theorem Gafurov"). The main consequence of the theorem is that it is fundamentally impossible to predict the exact time and the depth of the stock market crisis on the basis of experience (applies mathematical apparatus ergodicity the same as in physics for prinitsipe uncertainty. This Gafurov concludes that "when planning an investment strategy you should not minimize the risks on the basis of the predictions of the crisis, not because of the accumulated statistics on market data, and based on fundamentally different, basic, minimax provisions of the theory of portfolio formation, the theory of trading strategies. "

The name Gafurov inextricably linked application ergodicity stock analysis concepts discussed them in a series of articles 1997-1998 of the year, which caused lively debate and fierce criticism. M.Boldyrev - one of the main opponents Gafurov noted that "finally a general chorus retelling of textbooks on technical analysis appeared some alternative view of the world, though not all may agree with him. Hopefully, as more balanced "is all in the future defense of the views of the authors. In general, as a result of discussions with the participation of prominent Russian mathematicians (Laureate of State Prize in the field of statistics A.Gorchakov etc.), It was found that there was no need to introduce complex and outdated ergodicity concept that can replace more comfortable and accepted in the Russian scientific environment concept stationary, as well as proposed further Dzh.M.Keyns homogeneity. Allegations Gafurov that only erogodichnost but not stationary can be used in the case of the Bayesian approach is manifestly ill-founded and did not receive support. Moreover, in later articles Gafurov himself admitted that the proof of theorems proposed by him in earlier articles contain errors, and the formulation of the consequences of the theorems they were changed. In particular, Gafurov replaced the concept of "nonergodicity stock market", to "nonergodicity stock analysis."

Gafurov constantly in all his work unnecessarily confuses perspective stock analysis and econometrics, without any reason imposing on stock analysts econometric methodological and philosophical limitations.

Sam Gafurov, known for its alarmistkimi texts, emphasized: "The whole point of my alarmism comes down to one very simple and trivial thoughts, for which there is no depth Namely:. When the market collapse of the - stop-loss will not save And will not save them by. a very simple reason - in that situation all (and brokers) will act poprintsipu: "every man for himself!" and the majority of the brokers on the principle: "You die today and I tomorrow" That is, sell orders will be executed out of order. revenue and in order of importance for their own. and god forbid to be in such a situation the shoulder, which provides for the automatic sale of the pledged assets at a time when the market price becomes less than the value of collateral. Especially when you can not get through to a broker ... ".

Gafurov categorical opponent of neural network applications, calling them "pattern recognition for lazy people." He argues in "War with robots or word against neural networks" that "specialized essential methods of discriminant analysis will always give better results than the universally stupid neural network modeling is not the reality, and brain expert, the initial position of the Expert level is considered as the level of knowledge of the newborn. " As part of the debate, defending neyromatematicheskie methods A.A.Maksimov acknowledged that "the main question has already arisen (by the way it has put good Mr. S. Gafurov in the magazine" Securities Market "). But there it was all was theoretically "[1]. "Only one person criticized the trading system is basically - Said Gafurov, and he quickly rolled up foppish academic banter" [2].

In fact Gafurov he applied often criticized them an unfair method of controversy - it unjustifiably narrowed the concept of "neural networks", criticized (rightly) all the neural network paradigm for the shortcomings of early neural networks, while the neural network paradigm has expanded considerably and went beyond fair, but private criticism Gafurov. In addition, it is inadmissible to criticize one science (theory of neural networks) with the positions of other sciences (discriminant analysis, pattern recognition, multivariate statistics and geometry), as practiced Gafurov.

Gafurov is convinced that "the task of creating artificial intelligence in the form in which it was originally placed, was successfully solved in the 60`s and early 70-ies of the last century, when it was strictly proved that all the functions of the higher nervous activity may have been modeled methods Detect images or multivariate statistics with any desired degree of tochnosti.Odnako had already formed a professional charlatans mafia-grantees, specializing in bombast using the words "artificial intelligence." More than anything, these recipients are not able to do. Of course, it is somewhat mafias, desperately fighting for every penny of grants, but they instantly come together when needed again hung deceive the financiers of assets, funding science, trustingly give ear musicality of the phrase "artificial intelligence" ... all of the essential, significant problems in this industry - in computer simulations functions of the higher nervous activity - solved .... "

Gafurov - the author of valuable empirical material monograph "The experience of a comparative analysis of the privatization and formation of the corporate securities market in developing and post-socialist country from 1991-1996." and more amusing, provocative works on the theory and practice of the political economy of property. In particular, he noted that "in the conditions of the Anglo-Saxon and the Dutch right control of the company can be carried out without concentrating ownership of shares in the hands of the controlling company of the group. The activities of company governed by a Board of Directors, legally defined procedure for the election which actually leads to the co-optation of new members older members of the Board of Directors, which ensures continuity of effective control over the company initially owned. Moreover, it turns out to be the owner of the more risky and less profitable, than to oblige the company to borrow in their economic activities in certain banking institutions. on the one hand, it reduces the taxation (taxes paid by small investors, not by the present owners), and on the other, to minimize the risk of an unsuccessful business. If the company will incur a loss, it will be the losses of shareholders, meanwhile, as credit lenders (the real owners, but formally independent legal entities) will be paid according to current legislation including the expense of small investors to invest in the capital of the company. "

Author fairly well-known article about the philosophical views of the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi "Muammar Gaddafi Social philosophy and tradition of European anarchism", translated into several European, Arabic, and even African (gur, malinike [source?], And others.) Languages.

In addition, the author of several works on the economy, privatization and development of the stock markets of Arab and Asian countries.

Gafurov constantly the idea of ??a single human civilization, categorically rejecting any form of civilized approach to history. In poetic form, he contrasts the quote Kipling`s "The West - is West and East - is the East, and they do not come together?" A quote from the Russian rock poet A.Sapunova (group Resurrection): "Just as there are crying in pain, as well in the throes of having children ", which, according to Gafurov, much more accurately reflects what the East. "... We are all people, - says Gafurov -... we belong to the same species, and our behavior in general, standardized, is subject to the same laws of higher nervous activity ... We have one children we are born. are common".

The discussion about the Asiatic mode of production Gafurov took an extreme position of denying the feasibility of introducing the concept of "Asiatic mode" on the grounds that including the requirements of Occam`s razor does not multiply the number of entities, noting that the concept of feudal, slave-owning and tribal era military way democracy production is sufficient to explain the phenomena of the Asian societies. In fact, Gafurov logic paradigm reflects his views. Since Gafurov is convinced that "there is no abstraction", the concept of feudal, slave and Asian production methods for it have meaning only its explanatory and predictive power. It really shows that the system of "feudal-slave" explains a lower cost more things to more communities than a complex system of "feudal -Asian-slave." From this he concludes that the introduction of the concept of the Asiatic mode of production impractical.

S. Gafurov is actively engaged in the popularization of knowledge about China on TV and in popular "yellow" press. Its main thesis is that the "yellow threat" (the threat to Russia from China) does not exist.

Gafurov is the author of an interesting work on the problems of the Muslim sects: the Ismailis, Druze and Alawite. He, in particular, believed that all the differences between trends in Islam (Sunni and different areas of Shiism) practically reduced to enforcement issues, not dogmatic, because in order to be a Muslim is necessary and sufficient public acceptance of the creed of just two positions: (1) that god is one (tawhid) and (2) that Mohammed is one of his prophets. He believed that the design of a single flow is reduced to the codification and the establishment of a separate, independent "Madhab", that is, the law school and the rule of law, distinguishing this from other areas within Islam.

Known for its purism in terms of methods of economic and, above all, stock forecasting, and general social sciences (eg, Gafurov belongs to a new definition of the subject of philosophy instead accepted definition. "Philosophy - that is what people are doing, who call themselves philosophers," he introduces the next addition "philosophy - is that part of what the people who call themselves philosophers, that satisfies the criteria of scientific knowledge - consistency, reproducibility, robustness, that is independent of the sample and the other").

The phrase "You`re like Said Gafurov!" Among stock analysts understood to mean unhealthy purism, obscurantism regarding the development of new, progressive methods for the prediction of the stock [3]. [Citation needed] Supporters opinions SZ Gafurov often spread on the Internet of its belief system which is recognized by professionals in the analysis of the stock is considered "extra-terrestrial" dogmatic.

Gafurov openly calls himself a "Marxist". However, his works are published by left ( "Alternatives", "workers` democracy"), neutral ( "Agency of Political News" Belkovsky) and right ( "Securities Market", "Re: action", "Libertarium") editions. The very reason he thinks this fact is not for omnivorous, but for "the recognition of achievements in science."

Gafurov is convinced that all political events are reduced to "deep material interests" of the largest financial and industrial corporations and classes. S. Gafurov often called [citation needed] "economic determinist" and "vulgar materialist".

Gafurov has repeatedly emphasized that he shares the view, for example, I.Shamira that "the world is too complex for it can be controlled," citing the detailed analysis of the processes of decision-making in government and management in different countries. Gafurov emphasized the inadequacy of the ordinary conception of democracy, carefully separating the "authority of the government of tyranny," for example, and the case of Stalin, pointed out the nature of the bureaucracy spetsefichesky action. However, in respect of conspiracy theories Gafurov wrote, "is always wiser to assume that if someone has the ability as a result of a conspiracy to obtain some benefit, and has the ability to carry out this plot, he will carry out this plot." However Gafurov has repeatedly pointed out that the "conspiracy to [stock] market`s largest players is unlikely because of the difficulties to achieve an acceptable level of mutual trust between them."

S. Z.Gafurovu owns a number of works on philosophy and psychology. The works of these secondary to Western sources, and not of great interest [citation needed], although it introduces in the Russian scientific revolution of interesting material on the stock market philosophy and psychology, as well as a number of mathematical concepts is not enough common among Russian specialists in the humanities.

Charges SZ Gafurov in the "failings" in the psychological and philosophical works, his oppenentami, usually as a result of the discussions were recorded. It is believed [source?] That differs Gafurov not dilettantism and rigor, unduly restricting the subject as psychology and philosophy in order to ensure the misunderstood, the formal scientific and consistency. In particular, Gafurov asserts that "the philosophy of practical and necessary thing ... only philosophy is highly specialized and applied science, and not what they say about it the Russians who call themselves philosophers ...".

His epistemological views can be considered an extreme nominalism. He said: "philosophy of the twentieth century says, in the real world of abstraction does not exist, there is only the real, concrete objects. Abstractions exist only in human languages ??and easy to use for data reduction in communication between people. However, such an understanding of abstract terms ... imposes additional restrictions on the concept. For successful communication between people terms shall have a number of stringent properties - consistency, reproducibility. Different people should be on the basis of the same information to come to the same abstractions. It is a robustness that is independent of the sample. " As part of the ontology under the "existence" as Gafurov understands no more no less, but simply "the ability to make any object spatial and temporal coordinates." In general, epistemological views Gafurov is Marxist positivism.

In the field of aesthetics Gafurov views differ snobbery, arrogance, mechanism. Thus, he denies any aesthetic value of modern popular music, considering the music as "a set of ordered acoustic vibrations, which can be compared with each other." Hypocrisy Gafurov manifested in the fact that he was in his youth a jazz and rock pianist, even the composing pop music, but at the same time, compared in terms of the elementary theory of music popular music and classical music, Gafurov shows that popular music is "primitive , step back, an expression of the class will of the bourgeoisie to the stupefaction of the working people. " This Gafurov categorically opposed to that classical music and popular music is "incomparable". Gafurov has consistently pursued the idea that a "bad taste" and "bad taste" - is fundamentally different things. Bad taste on Gafurov - it is love and not love Haydn by Brahms. Bad taste the same - it is "more likely to listen to D. Bilan than BSO."

Ethics Gafurov understands only narrative, "a positive, rather than normative." "... Ethics and behavior are subject to the same laws. If you think about it, the ethics - is a function of expediency. As the ethics and feasibility of changing the external conditions ", - says Gafurov. Peremptory norms of ethics for it simply does not exist. Gafurov, examining the question of the publication Canadian homosexual Chevalier compromising material of a sexual nature that resulted in his view, a change of prime minister of Great Britain, said: "cannibal ethics as suitable as ethics bugger, as well, and the ethics of the British prime minister."

In the field of psychology Gafurov reduces the subject of psychology to the analysis of experimental psychological data. Gafurov "does not exist" Psychology is for experiment. The subject of psychology, he said "higher nervous activity", stressing that "what the soul is, I do not know. Personally, I have no soul. " Gafurov said: "I have little interest in subjective experiences of people .... their aspirations, feelings, thoughts, meanness and treachery, heroism and self-sacrifice - all the essence of electrochemical stimulation of synapses ... they certainly have homo sapiens sapiens different from the pharyngeal ring irritation of the nervous system ant, but by and large, the difference hardly noticeable ... on the contrary, the iron logic of history, to step over the bodies and burned the city, I`m interested in ... "

For Gafurov characterized by the reduction of mass psychology (although it denies the existence of the subject of study in "Social Psychology") for rational behavior and the subject of research, he sees in the analysis of the hidden rationality in an irrational at first glance, the behavior of the masses. This criticism articles Gafurov claimed [citation needed] that his studies are in stark contrast to his own methodological orientations. Either there is a hidden rationality, but then the subject of psychology is not only the analysis of experiments, or vice versa. And then, and more compatible.