Leonid Grinin

Picture of Leonid Grinin

Date of Birth: 1958

Age: 57

Place of birth: Kamyshin

Citizenship: Russia


He graduated from the Volgograd State Pedagogical Institute in 1980.

1996. Candidate of Philosophical Sciences. Thesis - "The periodization of the historical process."

2001. Doctor of Philosophy. Thesis "The role of the productive forces in the world historical process."

Main research directions

Research Grinin connected with the problems of social laws, social evolution, the driving force of historical development, the theory of the historical process, its periodization, analysis of its individual aspects (production, political), the evolution of the state, as well as the analysis of contemporary globalization. In the field of global, universal history and futurology research interests are related to the analysis of contemporary issues of globalization and modernization; forecasting of political and socio-economic development of the world; the current global crisis; economic cycles of different durations and their modeling; scientific and information revolution and its impact on global processes; history of globalization and the periodization of global processes; analysis of global trends in the historical process; comparing the global processes in nature and society.

Theory of history

The theory of socio-cultural evolution


The principle of production

The most important contribution to the development of Grinina theory of the historical process is the concept of the principles of the historical process of production and industrial revolutions. Category of the principle of production of goods became generalized to concepts such as appropriating economy, the productive economy, industrial production and modern news production. Each of these concepts point to a new quality, replace the principles underlying the production basis. Grinin identifies four principles of production of goods: hunting and collecting; agricultural and craft; industrial; Scientific Information. This division became the basis for a system of periodization of the historical process. Changing production principles associated with the beginning and the commission of three production revolutions: 1) agricultural; 2) Industrial; 3) scientific information (or STR).

The theory of industrial revolutions

Each of industrial revolution has its own cycle of development, in t. Ch. Each has two innovative (qualitative) phase, between which lies the period of the spread of innovations and improvements in large regions ( `modernization` period). So, the first stage of the agrarian revolution - the transition to the at-a primitive manual (hoe) agriculture and cattle breeding since about age 12-9 thousand years ago;. the second - the transition to irrigation or plow rainfed agriculture since about the period of 5.5 thousand years ago.. The first phase of the industrial revolution re-start in the XV-XVI centuries. strong development of navigation and international trade, technology and mechanization on the basis of the engine water, qualitative complexity of the division of labor in manufacture, and other processes. The second stage - industrial Perevi-mouth XVIII - the first third of the XIX century. -Contact with the introduction of different machinery and steam energy-energy. The first stage of the scientific and information revolution began in the 40-50-ies. Twentieth century. breakthroughs in automation, power engineering, in the field of synthetic materials, but especially you-razilsya in the creation of electronic control, communications and information. Currently in the world there is a process of a powerful distribution and improve innovation. On the basis of the forecast of the probability of the second stage of scientific and information revolution of the theory of industrial revolutions Grinin it was made, which could begin in 2030-2040-ies. Judging by today`s scientific discoveries and achievements (in genetics, medicine, biotechnology, nanotechnology), the second stage of this revolution may begin with a radical growth opportunities to influence changes in the biological nature of man himself. In general, this revolution can become a revolution "control systems", in other words, the extensive development of the ability to influence and planned as a whole to manage a wide variety of natural and industrial processes.