Georgiy Arbatov

Picture of Georgiy Arbatov

Date of Birth: 05/19/1923

Age: 87

Place of birth: Kherson

Citizenship: Ukraine

Academician Georgi Arbatov: It appears that Putin Roosevelt?

- You, Georgy Abramovich never wanted exclusively for the members of the Russian government to read a series of lectures about the Great Depression and the New Deal of President Roosevelt? I suspect it would not useless occupation.

- Mild represent our ministers in the lecture hall. They are so sure of themselves that are unlikely to want to learn even if Roosevelt. Gref Kasyanov never tire of repeating, they say, the market will judge all. Meanwhile, the experience gained by the Americans in the 30s of the last century, could be very useful for Russian reformers. They seemed to have forgotten that the reforms 90 were not successful due to their lack of concepts, ideas. Everything was done according to the principle: the farther from the Soviet model, the better. As a result, we have managed to build capitalism, but not modern, socially oriented and semi-wild, reminiscent of the one that was at the end of XVIII - early XIX centuries.

Of course, the causes of Great depression in the United States and the systemic crisis in Russia is different. But the depth of the fall in something comparable. Franklin Roosevelt did not want the revolution and forced to take a significant and radical reforms, creating capitalism with a human face. However, you probably took something else: whether the President of Russia understands the historic task if formulated and ready to implement what Roosevelt called New deal, the New Deal?

- You think?

-- Time will tell. However, even now visible interesting parallels. Herbert Hoover, Franklin Roosevelt`s predecessor in the White House, Washington, something vaguely similar to our Boris Yeltsin. The same ferocious domineering grip on the background of general ignorance, ignorance of the problems of modern society. In America, rolling wave of bankruptcies annually burns at least 600 banks, rapidly growing unemployment and Hoover tried to persuade the people to suffer, not compromised, rigidly tying the dollar to the gold standard. Something similar was observed and in our August 98 th, when Yeltsin insisted that will not allow the ruble devaluation. As a result, I brought a financial default ...

... Russia quite burned on the failed reforms, threw it far back. We have to admit the mistake. And it shall be said the head of state. But detection of small, needs its own program. A true leader is not afraid to face the unpopular measures. Roosevelt started with the adoption of two extremely rigid laws - the restoration of industry and agriculture regulation. He gave the right to the trade unions, has introduced social and health insurance, has made the reduction of the working day. And - to save capitalism.

- And that should save Putin?

- Country. I do not call upon our president to revive the State Planning Commission in its Soviet incarnation, but the elements of a planned economy to recover neobhodimo.Eto first. Very important is the moral aspect. Economic reforms are doomed to failure if they do not take people. Without the participation of the working population in the process of structural adjustment to count on positive reforms naive. Five years ago, much has been said that our economy has a chance. But in contrast to the Great Depression of the crisis in the Russian economy was triggered by economic mismanagement and sometimes outright stupidity of those to whom was responsible for the decision. 98th year spurred the economy, but the breakthrough did not happen, because there was no and there is no coherent program of action. Nothing in fact is not developed, the structural problems are frozen, and we pretend as if everything is in order. We are waiting for another shock?

- Leads to the well-known thesis that Russia is able to mobilize only the face of a real threat when people rallying collective fear?

- Unfortunately, it is. We are proud to talk about the seven percent growth of GDP, but "modest" is silent, that during the years of reforms times the decline in production counted, the economy has suffered more than during the Great Patriotic War. At the same time on the ruble continues to grow multi-million dollar mansions. And live in them, not only businessmen, but also subtle officials, officially earning a penny. Why Putin does not send these palaces inspectors who asked: "Knock, knock, who lives in teremochke What Chichi mansions built?" The President is entitled to request from the governor and Abramovich report why he is engaged in buying up sports clubs all over the world, and does not solve the problems of the region. Or all of the Chukchi already satisfied?

Representative councils of "erring" oligarch who dared to declare their political ambitions or to support the Kremlin`s opponents may cause sympathy of the lumpen, by definition, hate the rich, but is unlikely to work on the authority of the government in the eyes of people who have not forgotten how to think. If you feel the responsibility for the country, he should not worry about the rankings and how to appeal to voters, and to engage in concrete actions.

- But in America, "soaked" oligarchs.

- There was no settling of scores. All the disputes were solved and solved on the basis of antitrust laws. In America, the owners of the factories and steamers are not elected to Congress. Rich man - yes, but not a billionaire. However, Rockefeller, and he will not nominate. And Ford, too. Business people should not get involved in politics too. It`s a different profession.

I can not imagine, and the purchase of Standard Oil`om NBC television or CBS. The scandal in the United States would rise creepy. Over the ocean, try to keep at least the relative independence of the media and by the power of money, the EBT power of the bureaucracy. In the United States understands that it is important for society. We have the same "Gazprom" owns NTV, and no one in the mustache does not blow ...

- We should not be afraid of the press to give her freedom.

-- Correctly! During the presidential campaign of 1936 over seventy newspapers largest American cities were genuine persecution Roosevelt, calling him a communist and a traitor to his class. The head of the White House could, as they say, to use the administrative resource and plug the opposition media, but did not do so, and was re-elected president, convincingly defeating Republican candidate. A leader must be confident, then there will be immunity will not be too painful response to criticism. It comes with experience. Putin also received the power, do not have sufficient skills manager.

- Not gods pots, Arbatov. In the end, the king does suite. Same Roosevelt before the election has created the so-called brain trust, which included talented scientists, politicians and economists. It is this trust has developed a set of measures, which are then implemented the president.

- True said Roosevelt created. Such trusts do not fall from heaven. Do not be afraid to approach those who are smarter than you. With sycophants and fools cope easier, but in fact the case needs a strong personality! I had a chance to talk with the leaders of our country, starting with Khrushchev and ending with Yeltsin, and I can say that the most intelligent and the intelligent among them was Yuri Andropov. Gifted by nature Yuri maintained nature bright, extraordinary. Even Leonid Brezhnev, a man of average abilities, but with the management experience, was smart enough to call in a consultant intellectuals, people with head. And Yeltsin`s advisers were at the level of academics. And now? You know many ministers in the face? I have just two. And both - Ivanov. Well, even the head of Ministry of Emergency Situations Sergei Shoigu, often flashed on the screen. Other merge into a homogeneous mass, it is impossible to identify. You can not pick his subordinates only on the basis of personal loyalty, of belonging to the security forces and the presence of St. Petersburg residence permit in the passport. The art of leadership is to arrange all the places, leveraging the strengths of each.

Or another aspect. Putin seeks to gain control over parliament, the State Duma fully bend under him. What for? The principle of separation of powers - the invention is useful. President of the need to free his hands and his head to address global issues, and he grabs it all at once - and steers the deputies, governors and builds, and trying to rein in the media ... In the end, nothing is brought to its logical conclusion.

And you are asking about the New Deal in relation to Russia ... From here will take a new course? .. By the way, in difficult moments Roosevelt relied far only party colleagues, calling under his banner and Republicans, and other sensible Americans. We have also kept the Bolshevik intolerance of dissent, it became the property of genetic Russian politician.

- If you are not with us is against us?

- Yes, the only way ... The most offensive, that Russia has every reason to claim a major role in world politics, but we are missing the point. The richness of the subsoil plays a cruel joke with us, we live in the knowledge that in the case of fire there is always oil and gas: no matter what nonsense did open the flap longer sell fuel to the West and somehow we reduce make ends meet. It can not last forever.

- Do you believe Vladimir Putin does not know that?

- Our president says the right words, he says convincingly, to listen to him nicely. But stories are not speeches, but action. About Roosevelt we`re judged not on the pre-election speech, and remember how the American president had behaved during the Second World War, in 1933 in the first hundred days in office, introduced to Congress a package of laws - on banking, saving, giving up the gold standard, labor camps, honesty in exchange operations, farmers loans, relief ... All of them - with subsequent amendments - and now part of the "USC", being the most important element of state regulation of the US economy.

From the standpoint of modern Russian realities curious law "Buy American". It contained a ban on the use of any foreign goods in the performance of public procurement, unless the price was not lower than twice the corresponding American products. Later the document was the basis for the closure of the state of the military market to foreign firms. Beginning in September, the 39th World War II determined the development of the US economy and contributed to its exit from the crisis. All together it saved America, Roosevelt, with the 20-ies confined to a wheelchair with polio, was remembered as a man strong and courageous. It is unique among the US president is elected for four terms and stretch held at the White House for 12 years.

Yeltsin made history by climbing on a tank in August `91. Alas, Boris was unable to get off the reservation ... Putin? In the morning I go to the bedroom window and every time I see a picture: in the trash someone digs. And often, this "someone" is not a ragged vagabond, and intelligent-looking man who simply have nothing to eat ... How then to hear stories about the successes of the economy and GDP growth of one percent? Perhaps our leaders different views, I do not find any other explanation ...