Date of Birth: 07/06/1946
Birth Place: New Haven
Citizenship: United States
In a presidential election year in the US summer always really hot even if the weather was not particularly warm spoils. The election campaign is entering a decisive stage, the assurances of political analysts, only the end of May balance of power looms real contenders for the White House. Career US Vice-President Al Gore, who is close to the nomination of the official Democratic candidate for the presidency, was held in full view of all of America - its strengths and weaknesses are well known. His opponent, George W. Bush among the lesser-known politicians also do not include: the 46th Governor of the State of Texas, the son of former US President George W. Bush. But in the political battle of national scale on their own, he participated for the first time. And it turns out that as a politician and personality Republicans favorite in many ways remains a mystery, especially outside the United States.
Extend the idea of ??a possible future president helped drive by "political patrimony" Bush, organized in early May, the US State Department for a group of foreign reporters. Having been in the Texas capital - Austin, as well as the largest city in the state - Houston from European reporters were able to talk with a number of experts who personally know George Bush: the staff of his campaign, activists of the Republican Party, university professors and experts, perhaps the most knowledgeable colleagues in the face of the local press. I was not able to meet with Bush himself - engaged in election matters, the governor holds a staff of no more than two days a week.
One of the interviewees clearly exaggerated the virtues of the Republican challenger for the White House, while others showed more restraint in the assessment of its quality. However, everyone agreed on one thing: the reality of Bush`s chance to be elected president can not be the slightest doubt. As figuratively Professor, University of Texas at Austin, Bruce Buchanan, the opportunity it presents "fate itself on a silver platter." And it`s not just the well-known name that the Texas governor had inherited from his father. Currently, according to the scientist, the American society "feels fatigue from the Clinton and seeking a safe alternative." In this situation, Bush seems "handy man by" he is not tainted by the Washington scandals similar to those that now and then flare up around Bill Clinton; conservative, but do not go to extremes, like other Republican politicians such as Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the US House of Representatives; loves being in the limelight, but "not ambitious painful as some who dream of a presidential chair almost from kindergarten" / obvious allusion to the Al Gore /.
Initial opportunities for George W. Bush and in fact look quite favorable. "Of the last four US presidents, three - former state governors," - reminded Ken Herman, head of the bureau of the newspaper "Austin American-Statesman" at the Texas legislature. Besides, he says, "people now do not trust what comes out of Washington." And because the main criterion for whether Bush is suitable for the presidency, is its "track record" in Texas, which is connected with the whole life of the Republican favorite.
"George Dablyu Bush was born July 6, 1946 - says his official biography - and grew up in Texas in Midland and Houston, received his BA from Yale University and a master`s of business administration at Harvard Business School and served as pilot of the plane F-102.. in the Air National Guard of Texas. He began his career in the oil and gas industry in the Midlands in 1975 and has worked in the energy industry until 1986. After taking part in the presidential campaign of his father in 1988, gathered a group of partners that purchased the 1989 baseball team, "Texas Rangers" and later built for "the Rangers` new base - the stadium in Arlington He worked as partner and general manager in the leadership of the club until the election of the Governor of November 8, 1994, when he received 53.5% of the vote to win a historic victory Nov. 3, 1998: won 68.. , 6% of the votes, became the first Texas Governor to be elected to two four-year terms in a row. " Contains biographical information and personal data, "Governor Bush and his wife Laura, a former teacher and librarian, who grew up in Midland, live in the historic governor`s mansion in Austin, along with 18-year-old daughters, twins Barbara and Jenna, a dog named Spot as well as two cats - Willy and Ernie By religion governor Bush -. adherent of the Methodist church. "
Among countrymen Bush enjoys high popularity, and they are out to emphasize that consider him "my one hundred percent." Hence the frequent mention of "a child in a hot and dusty Midland", which is adjacent to another famous city in the west of the state - Odessa. Characteristically, in the official biography of the governor missed the place of birth. On clarify the request, which is still born Bush, Deputy Staff Governor`s Office Director in charge of public relations, Michael Jones with reluctantly said: "Unfortunately, in the state of Connecticut, but came to Texas at the age of two to three years and fully Texas soaked in spirit. "
We can say that Bush pays Texan reciprocate. Of course, coming on the national political arena, he needs the help of experienced experts who are well oriented in the corridors of power in Washington. And in the press there have been reports that the Texas governor established contacts with "prominent Republican strategists in Washington." However, the backbone of his political team is clearly Texas. Some party members accuse Bush of "provincialism", exhibited in the formation of pre-election headquarters. It is said, in particular, that it is the Texas assistants, poorly oriented to the realities of other states, guilty of gross errors made by George W. Bush in the primary election. Nevertheless, the governor is clearly not ready to break "the political umbilical cord" with his staff.
But who knows, maybe in the case of Bush`s success in the presidential election on the political horizon shine USA Texas stars such as Joe Ollbo / now general manager of the campaign / or Karen Hughes / director of the election headquarters of Public Relations /? The closest assistants favorite Republicans, according to the testimony of experts in Texas, are now the Karl Rove and Donald Evans. The first is considered the main strategist of the campaign of George W. Bush. K.Rouv - professional political consultant who sold his company in Austin, to devote all his time to Bush. Taking advantage of the reputation of the intellectual, he plays the role of "home teacher" under the governor, following the circle of his reading. It is considered the cultivation of merit Rove Bush`s image as a "conservative, which is not alien to compassion."
D. Evans - chairman of the election campaign, the investor, which Bush Jr. binds long-term friendship. Just like Rove, has on Texas Governor huge impact. Some do not exclude that in the case of Bush`s victory in the presidential elections Evans prepared for the post of White doma.Pomogaet staff chief of staff to George W. Bush and some of the former associates of Bush. Among his foreign policy advisers may be called the former US Secretary of State George Shultz and former Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz. Their advice, by the way, largely relating to policy towards Russia. A selection of vice presidential candidate who would lead paired with Bush a decisive battle for the White House, is a former Minister of Defense Richard Cheney.
However, unanimously stressed the Texan experts, Bush seeks to use political baggage father only marginally, as in his best interests - to establish a reputation as a completely independent policy and not "presidential son." "Governor Bush uses only selfless love of his father and, of course, the mother - instructively said deputy spokesman Austin campaign headquarters" of George W. Bush - the presidential "Scott McClellan - and formulates policy course quite independently." However, selfless parental love sometimes is not good for the favorite Republican. "When the old Bush said" my boy "on more than an adult son, applying for the White House - said the correspondent of" Austin American-Statesman, "- it leaves not too pleasant impression."
Among the advisors of George W. Bush, is outside the tight circle of Texans, most clearly stands out of course, a black political scientist Condoleezza Rice, known specialist in Russian issues, has made a name for himself at Stanford University and has experience in the administration of George HW Bush. In regard to foreign policy, experts acknowledge, Bush is to a great extent under the influence of conservative thinkers of the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace at Stanford. Rice is considered to be an outstanding representative of this school, preaching a fairly hard line against Moscow. In Texas, a senior foreign policy adviser Bush speak with the deepest reverence. "I fully admit that the Bush-Rice President can become an assistant for national security," - said Professor Richard Murray of the University of Houston.
George W. Bush and Condoleezza Rice are in constant contact, sharing, inter alia, letters by e-mail. Using the Russian terminology, it might be termed "educational program continuous" in international affairs. However, political analysts insist Texas, there is no hint of "brainwashing." "As Adviser Rice is worthy of all respect, - said Professor Buchanan -. It does not apply to the number of manipulators with the manners in the spirit of Machiavelli, like Zbigniew Brzezinski." Rice itself gives the impression of a calm, balanced and not alien to poetry. To himself he says that in life it is "two big love - music and Russia." But as a specialist receives is not only approving the assessment. In New York, one of the political scientists who has worked a long time in Russia, it was possible to hear this: "Condoleezza unable to comprehend the depth of Russian affairs, as the experience of direct acquaintance with Russia it has almost no Almost all of her knowledge about the country drawn from. books. "
Be that as it may, George W. Bush remains primarily Provincial politician, as evidenced by not only the selection of their closest aides. And it does not sound rebuke him. Paradoxically, the very position occupied by them now, does not give Bush the possibility to express themselves with bright side on a national scale.
Texas - one of the largest US states and territories, and population. If you treat it as a separate state, in size Texas economy would occupy 11th place in the world. Along with New York, California and Florida Texas is included in "superchetverku" states, which play a decisive role in the political life of the country. However, the influence of the Texas governor takes much more modest position than, say, the governor of New York. This provision is incorporated in the state constitution, adopted after the 1876 Head ershilas "reconstruction", in other words, the occupation forces northerners Texas, which was part of a civil war in a slave confederation. Frightened by the invasion of "alien" Texans consciously chose to weak government and weak governor. Texas lawmakers are not professionals. In the biennial cycle of the control when the session of the legislative assembly continuously lasts only 140 days, they are working on the "part-time", receiving about 7 thousand. Dollars per year, and the money in the United States can not live even in the most modest requests. The real powers of the Governor are generally reduced to the appointment of the heads of the various committees. It does not have a strong influence on legislators and in dealing with them to rely mainly on the strength of conviction and personal charm.
It is in such conditions developed a working style of George W. Bush. According to people who know him well, he gets along very well with politicians, to sit in the local Capitol, avoids confrontation and defends only those bills that have a chance of being accepted. Governor masterfully accompanies other politicians and voters. A merit he puts it, that "if it was the largest tax cut in Texas history." And this despite the fact that conservative Texans in the mass are opposed to their money in taxes spent on social programs. Most Texans are supporters of the death penalty, and Bush kept accordingly: for the period of his governorship in the state executed about one hundred and fifty convicts, and he is not going to interfere with the "conveyor belt of death", arguing that "the system works as it should." Texans love firearms, and Bush is opposed to legislative restrictions on gun ownership. Very proud of the governor of their achievements in improving the local education system.
"George Bush is seeking modest results, acting methodically and slowly, - said Professor University of Texas Bruce Buchanan -. It has set itself a popular target without causing controversy in some sense it is running ahead of the engine, enrolling in their asset that. simply doomed to success doing the right thing and claim that doing the right -. it`s the principle. " As recognized almost every one of the interlocutors, Bush deliberately avoids extensive agenda, preferring to focus on three or four issues that really amenable to solution. Among the current priorities for him include: the social security system, tax system, education and juvenile justice. Bush`s ideal - the government, the minimum interfere in the life of society, whose main goal - to create the conditions for fair competition. Kids, school, minorities, housing for the underserved - these topics are of particular importance for the "conservative, which is not alien to compassion." However, to solve social issues, Bush offers primarily by market means. Now, for example, it promotes a very controversial idea of ??"privatization" of Social Security, so that Americans have a portion of their taxes going to a pension could before reaching the age used for the enrichment of the securities market. Critics, especially Democrats, have already dubbed the project "Stock roulette".
According to some projections, if elected president, George W. Bush, in addition to "traditional spheres of interest", special attention will be paid to the budget and defense matters. yet, adds executive editor of the influential magazine "Texas Monthly" Paul Burka, Bush showed great interest in international affairs. "You may come as no surprise - said the publisher, personally knowing the Texas governor - but international politics - is a family tendency Bushes And George Bush has also a remarkable ability to negotiate face to face he has a real talent in the field of personal.. diplomacy. "
According to well-informed journalists, the governor himself said that really intrigued by some of the pages of the history of the last century. It is interested, for example, his question about what led President Harry Truman to expose the atomic bombing of Japan. As far as we can judge, it is very concerned about the Bush problem of international terrorism, in particular, that "Iraqis can personally take revenge for him what he had done to their country of his father."
We can expect that, having won the White House, George W. Bush wants to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, P.Burka said. However, the publisher admitted that Bush is unlikely to convince the Russian leader that the United States will not be able to do without a national missile defense system. If the son of former President Bush will win the White House, his foreign policy will be wearing "tone of the Cold War", a well-known publicist. However, in American society, according to him, "there is no evidence of anti-Russian sentiment." "Bush is definitely wish that Russia and the United States as much as possible to communicate with each other as colleagues - said P.Burka -. The fact that there was a stable democracy in Russia, of course, in the US interest."
In the same vein, though more restrained, expressed in the election of Bush in Austin headquarters. His staff expressed the view that, if elected governor of Texas US President Practice of Russian-US summits would be preserved as a "natural course". As noted by Scott McClellan, the pretender to the presidency have already developed "strong personal relationship" with the leaders of a number of countries, primarily Mexico. This line, in his opinion, it is quite suitable for dialogue with such important countries like Russia and China.
"Governor Bush has clearly stated Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, that does not consider Russia as an enemy, and expressed hope that the Russians do not see an enemy of the United States," - said another representative of Bush`s staff, is responsible for foreign policy issues, who wished to remain anonymous. Still, he said, "the time is ripe for a new relationship" between their countries. He said Bush wanted to "focus on the part of these relations, which deals with security issues." At the same time contender for the White House intends to "avoid involvement in political processes in Russia", as this practice is allegedly "negative reaction from the Russian side against the USA."
Employees of the election headquarters of the Bush confirmed that he was "willing to cooperate with the Russian in order to introduce amendments to the ABM Treaty", which would allow Washington to deploy a national missile defense system. If Moscow`s consent does not follow in the "acceptable time", said the leader of the Republicans justified the US withdrawal from the treaty. It was also said that in the near future from the George W. Bush can expect new performances "on the issues of foreign trade policy." At the same time, according to some political analysts, while in the world there is no truly major crises, one can hardly expect that Bush will make the case for its international "issue number one."
Who would vote for the Texas governor`s presidential election in November? His supporters said Professor Murray are "almost all the investors." It does not remain aloof and Texas business, generously replenishing campaign funds of the Republican favorite. As the largest Texas newspaper columnist, "Houston Chronicle," Alan Bernstein, reliable support Bush are the Houston energy company "Enron" and its head of Kenneth Lay. Among the influential Bush supporters also owns a large Texan investor Richard Rainwater, controls, in particular, the company "Crescent", to dispose of the real estate giant. By the way, it is argued that Texas businesses not associated with the possible victory of Bush any special privileges for staff. Everyone understands that it is unable to do much good for Texas, as once it did, for example, President Lyndon Johnson created the Houston control center manned space flight, which literally transformed the local economy.
Among those who will provide the candidate the Republicans mass support, it can be called a war - and despite the fact that Bush, who served in the National Guard, never fought, and his opponent, Al Gore served as a military reporter in Vietnam. What can be attributed to the strengths of George W. Bush? As already mentioned, it is able to negotiate with partners. Pleasant in dialogue. Able to listen and persuade opponents. Able to keep emotions under control, careful. When necessary, exhibits integrity and firmness. For example, assuming that the matter must prove commitment to reform public education, translated daughters Barbara and Jenna / named after the grandmothers and really do not like the appearance and character / from an exclusive private school in a simple state of Austin. Faithful friends and other demands unconditional loyalty. This is one reason why politicians exclude the possibility of a final reconciliation between him and the recent opponent - Senator John McCain of Arizona, although he recently officially supported Bush for president.
However, experts say, the desire to settle all the world may turn against George W. Bush. In particular, the US president to avoid confrontations with Congress still can not, and Texas Governor unaccustomed to such situations. "Bush looks remarkably ordinary, - admitted Professor Buchanan -. He hesitates when not prepared It is not presidential greatness inherent in, say, de Gaulle ... It is not an intellectual, he likes to read, debate the truth, the whole learning quickly.. grasping the necessary skills on the fly. Bush is definitely not a workaholic category, he likes to spend time at home, and that many are concerned. But Reagan was the same, but now it is considered the most outstanding modern US president. " "He was too fond of his pillow and his cat, - adds Bush`s characterization of Professor Murray -. We can not say that his campaign is very active - he constantly needed a break."
There are some other difficulties of a personal nature. Hints of what Bush had abused drugs in his youth, is no solid evidence, can be attributed to the sphere of speculation. But it is no secret that up to 40 years of age, he is very fond of alcohol. "Suppose it was not alcohol, - said Paul Burke, - this habit brought a lot of anxiety to his wife, but he does not see anything special." The weak side of Bush - hatred of the so-called "national" press, which at one time fairly critical of his father, and to the current favorite Republican concerns not the most friendly way. Meanwhile, Bush is very jealous perceives everything written about him, and he has a very good memory for correspondents.
One can hardly say that Bush has proved itself brilliantly in the business arena - and in the oil industry, and in the sphere of professional sport. "In fact, he twice went bankrupt - said during the meeting one of the foreign correspondents -. Now, then, the Americans have to believe that he`ll have better luck in office?" Finally, the fact that George W. Bush is Texas, not for every American is the best recommendation. Texas - the only state, which for several years has been an independent republic, but because they say its inhabitants, likes to do in the rest of the peak. Bush, of course, is far from the caricature of the Texan, which is unacceptable in other states, especially in the liberal Northeast. Yet the antagonism between the "Lone Star State" and the rest of the country to some extent preserved. Many still remembers how at the turn of 70-80-ies, in the oil boom era, when the Texas economy is revived and the Northeast suffered from lack of fuel, according to a Texas road traveled with the car bumper sticker: "Let the damned Yankees freeze in the dark. " And in New England, Bush is unlikely to help states that by birth he is "Connecticut Yankee".
Often, the Texas governor is campaigning, "stepping on a rake." Too Awesome upholding the legality of the frequent use of the death penalty is quite a cautious attitude on the part of these categories of voters, such as women and Catholics. Sometimes only one careless statement, to cause significant damage to himself. For example, saying that "only Christians go to heaven," Bush is very upset with the Jews. To make amends to them, he had to make a trip to Israel. But in Europe, it is still little known.
Perhaps implicitly works on Bush`s image an exemplary family man. Very good impression on others makes his wife Laura, giving it clear that he would not interfere in the political life of her husband. "I do not climb to it with the instructions, she said in a recent TV interview -. I do not think that George needs a weight on my part councils". These words have received a favorable response in a society that seems to be experiencing "some fatigue" is not only Bill but also by Hillary Clinton. However, it is generally accepted that in relation to Bush his wife plays the role of disciplining factor.
In the foreseeable future, an important step on the part of George W. Bush will be the choice of partner - in the vice-presidential candidate of the Republican Party. He mentioned that this place can take the governor of Pennsylvania, Tom Ridge - Catholic and moderate supporter of women`s right to abortion. Also known as the candidature authoritative congressman from Ohio, John Kasich. Present in the hypothetical list of names of prominent politicians, women - Governor of New Jersey Christine Todd Whitman and Elizabeth Dole, withdrawn from the current election campaign at an early stage. However, there are certain doubts as to whether
that the two representatives of the fair sex are qualified to take up the second most important post in the country.
As for Russia, President George Bush the second, it can expect more hard-line, but the rhetoric in the spirit of "cold war", experts believe, will have a rather "ritual or seasonal value." There is reason to hope that the main areas of existing cooperation will remain unaffected by new trends. In particular, the official representative of the Space Center in Houston, Stephen Nesbitt confirmed that cooperation with Russia meets NASA`s interest, especially now, when you create the International Space Station. Of course, much of the US policy may change depending on the presidential election outcome, the upcoming November, recognized representative of the US space agency, but whoever becomes president, it is hoped that the US-Russian cooperation in space exploration "will not only It maintains but also to expand. "
By the way, George W. Bush, speaking Tuesday at the National Press Club on the eve of the Russian-American summit in Moscow, said that the national security of Russia and the US should continue to not "depend on the preservation of the balance of the nuclear threat" both powers, stressing "Russia is not an enemy," the United States. "The logic of the" cold war ", which led to the creation of large stockpiles of nuclear weapons on both sides, has outlived its usefulness," said George. W. Bush.
In the case of the election of US President Bush is ready to cut the US nuclear capability to a level that would correspond to the scale of the threat to national security. Answering questions, he confirmed that he would be ready to act and unilaterally. According to Bush, the arms level in question could be "significantly lower" under the START-2. From Bush`s statements and explanations of his aides was clear that the commitment to reduce the US nuclear capability due to changes in the balance of power in the world after the "Cold War". In particular, now nuclear powers, in their opinion, no longer need the US as a counterbalance to the threat posed by conventional weapons.
Bush called Bill Clinton "does not tie the hands" of the future head of the American administration "hasty agreements" with Russia in the field of arms control. He expressed the opinion that the current administration is "moving towards a hasty decision, dictated by political schedule". According to Bush, "any change in the ABM Treaty must allow the development of technologies and experiments required to deploy adequate missile defense systems." "The absence of any solution would be better than a vicious agreement ties the hands of the next president."
Responding to questions, Mr. Bush said that in the event of coming to power, ready to share with Russia the US operating time in the field of missile defense - the truth, "depending on the behavior of" Moscow on the international arena. He also confirmed his readiness for constructive talks with President Vladimir Putin of Russia on missile defense. Bush said he would "just look in her eyes," Russian President Vladimir Putin and tell him. "You are no longer our enemies, and we will also not enemies I have no doubt that we can work together." According to the applicant believes, is "very important" to convey to the Russians thought that the Americans - "a peaceful nation and welcome the opportunity to work together with Russia to preserve peace."
On the question of whether he has invested in the military sense of the concept of US national greatness, especially Bush, he expressed confidence that the greatness of America is based on "love and mutual support" of its inhabitants. At the same time, however, he said he would not allow reduction of the combat readiness of US troops. He said he wants to "reassure Mr. Putin" that the military might need America, "to keep the peace."