Oil, diamonds and brains - the main value of worldwide
Estimates for all tastes, but if any of them is the surest prognosis? Is there a reliable way to get a dry economic Beach? As the world economy changed after the crisis, it is clear that the body after illness updated? About the recipes out of the crisis in an interview with columnist Sergei Leskov reflects director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences Academician Alexander Dynkin.
question: Alexander, the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, led by Alexander Yakovlev and Yevgeny Primakov, you`ve worked, Igor Ivanov, Vladimir Lukin, a lot of the State Duma deputies, two dozen well-known political scientists and even one future chief editor of "Izvestia". Maybe you do not have a temple of science, as an incubator of political and business leaders?
-response: outstanding personalities in IMEMO, and I`ve been working here 34 years old, has always been a lot. IMEMO was established in 1950 to provide political leadership analytical information, not related to the Foreign Ministry and foreign intelligence. In addition, there was another noble task - to try to bridge the gap between scientific knowledge and practical politics. Since IMEMO doing knowledge translation at the highest political level, it is inevitably out of politics. I also have worked economic adviser Yevgeny Primakov, when he headed the government, which won the last 1998-99. a crisis. The oil price then was $ 10.08, gold reserves remained at $ 2.5 billion. Of IMEMO left many prominent businessmen, because our employees better understand the market rules.
As for the temple of science, then in January 2009, the University of Pennsylvania in the United States published a ranking of think tanks. IMEMO entered the global top 50 of more than 5000 nominees and took 2nd place in Eastern Europe. IMEMO - one of our scientific world brands such as Fiztech and Kurchatov Institute. Here is our assessment of 2005 .: Russia has a good chance in 2020 to become the largest economy in Europe, and to take in terms of GDP 5th place in the world. The condition - an average GDP growth rate up to 2020 should not be less than 5.5%. We were well ahead. Today, "brake", not only we, but the whole world. Our result laid down in the "Concept of long-term development," the Russian government. He later repeated in many of the world`s authoritative forecasts, including in the US, "Global Trends 2025".
in: Your report on the last meeting of the Academy of Sciences was, in my opinion, one of the most interesting and informative. You said that the rate of innovation will emerge from the financial crisis. At a recent international forum on nanotechnology the same idea expressed oligarch suddenly took first place among the Russian billionaires. But innovation - this additional investment, and the court - lack of money.
-o: I want to say that the Academy of Sciences - a unique Russian innovation. Just as the Research University - Anglo-Saxon. At the academy twice as many scientists are taught in universities than university professors engaged in serious science, not a thesis. Maybe, except for 5-6 universities.
In today`s world the main factors of growth of the world economy began to globalization and innovation. Globalization affects the quantitative parameters of growth, innovation - the quality and the very paradigm of development. Before the crisis, the world economy in the year to grow the economy of a country like Germany. To sustain this hard gallop. The future of globalization after the crisis, by all accounts, foggy and very turbulent.
The crisis is characterized by the fact that the economy has stopped, no one buys. Turnover resumed only if new quality products appear, which will revive demand. These problems are solved by innovation. And because innovation strategy - the most reliable way in which Russia and the world can emerge from the crisis. It explicitly says Bill Gates: "In an innovative leap will happen during the current crisis, in times of crisis is always great discoveries are made.". After the crisis of innovation is likely to receive a significant acceleration.
US Paulson plan, which became law in addition to the financial aspect and the remuneration limit top management relies on innovation, especially in the energy sector. Obama-Biden Act outlined the creation of the XXI century new national platform of competitiveness. Investments in basic science will increase 2 times in 10 years. American science, and without the most powerful, it is going to grow the fastest in the world absolutely and relatively. Furthermore, additional measures to stimulate the production and consumption of high-tech products introduced in the United States. For example, encourage the production and purchase of cars with hybrid engines. In Russia, such measures is not enough, though talk about the innovation economy - a lot.
in: America we can not decree. How can you believe a drowning man who turned a common boat? More confidence in China. We often grieve that the economy did not follow the Chinese way. What are China`s guidelines on the part of the innovation?
-o: Last Congress of the Communist Party of China has made a political bet on their own innovations. Outlined huge investments made for stimulirova-of innovative economy. In 2004 an event occurred which I call the "Chinese cross": the percentage of expenditure on science in GDP in China has become more than in Russia. Despite the fact that Russia`s GDP grew rapidly for many years, science in relative terms, we spent less than world leaders, though do not expect to overcome the technological dependence. China appreciates the gap from the best technological milestone of 5 years, but realistic - age 10. In any case, wait for a short time. While the world knows of Chinese innovation. In Russia there is no integrated assessment, but, without a doubt, there is a set of technologies, where we are at the turn of the world: rocket engines, aerodynamics, nuclear and hydrogen energy. High demand for innovative forms in the energy sector, where we have good results.
In the world there is the experience of integral comparison of national innovation systems - innovative display. We have been doing such procedure in the EU evaluation. Unfortunately, Russia is close to the group of innovative backward countries. United States - in the group of leaders, but the 5-6-th place. Switzerland - global leader boards. China - in the group of innovative pursuers. While in the Middle Ages, China was the world leader, there were gunpowder, porcelain, paper and the compass. Then innovation for 500 years for some reason stopped. In science, there are theories that describe innovative growth, but there are no theories that describe innovative degradation.
in: We, Russian, consider ourselves the most intelligent white light. Perhaps it`s true. But at the same time for some reason, all the equipment and all the devices that we use are made by foreigners. We have long been nothing to make, and if I had to do, then, knowing his price concoctions themselves in their desire not to buy. Maybe, innovation is not about us?
-o: Features of the Russian mentality is such that we are committed to breakthrough discoveries to high. The painstaking problem O technologies on the market, we are not too close. And the market we have recently. So we - inventors. Innovator of the same - a man who not only invented, but directs his invention to market demand. He draws on ideas not only of technology, but carefully studying the needs of society and the economy. Real innovators in Russia is very small, and technological rents for our findings obtained in other countries. I think the Russian creative, but do not like to risk and innovation will inevitably involve financial risk. With our rates on loans risk becomes transcendent.
Russian innovation - access to administrative resources
Q: Recently, the "Proceedings" of the fate of thinking innovation director of the Kurchatov Institute Mikhail Kovalchuk. He believes that in the USSR, where advances in science have been claimed, was to build a strong innovative economy, not market mechanisms, and by administrative means.
-o: Mikhail V. rights, but not quite accurate. He`s a physicist. We had a powerful technological breakthroughs, focused on the dimensionless state demand. Similar administrative "innovation system" is, in North Korea, Iran, etc., from which in vsemmire headache. It is proved that the deficit of the economy are less likely to innovate than competitive economy. If we take the share of technology exports to the Soviet, not in the satellite countries, and competitive markets, believe me, it is not higher than it is today. Our successful commercial innovation - the world`s first "parquet" SUV "Niva", which scatters in Europe, like hotcakes, or hydrofoils - can be counted on the fingers. Mikhail Kovalchuk, one of the first in the country is implementing cutting-edge concept of NBIC (nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, cognitive science). But for now - on what we drive, how software and "hardware" use, on any phone talking about?
In Russia, in most sectors of the economy, except for mobile and retail, low competition. Plus a weak financial system with no "long" money. And it blocks innovation.
Q: Is our businessmen living conditions in the resort? They are fighting with wild abandon for a place under the sun. Is not competition?
-o: With the sun resorts and they have everything in order. Russian businessmen are fighting for access to administrative resources. And in this art they have no equal. Administrative resources - our Russian know-how. But to compete on the level of innovation they can not. It may be generally the most difficult and risky form of competition. Even large and successful our companies make ridiculous on the world practice investment in science. The share of corporate financing of science in Russia year-on-year declines, although growing in the world. But talk about innovation at every opportunity. Swing our innovations ...
According to forecasts, IMEMO, 2020. North America and Europe will give way to the championship of Asia in the financing of science. In moderately optimistic scenario, Russia will come at the European level, but will give way to finance science, not only the US and Japan, but also China and India. Perhaps, in Russia there will be some niche innovation and several centers of technological excellence - only on enthusiasm. Today seen a dramatic gap between statements and reality. According to Russian labor productivity is at the European level of the end of the 1960s, and South Korea of ??the 1990s. According to this indicator, we have 27% of the United States. This is the result of innovative stagnation. There is a danger that Russia will according to the pessimistic scenario, with innovative apathy, loss of competitiveness, with grave consequences for national security. At the other extreme optimistic scenario with the creation of high-tech clusters, innovation in a wide range of industries and massive exports of high technology products.
Q: Nevertheless, the strategic choice in favor of the innovations made at the highest political level. If we consider that successful revolutions were made always on top in Russia, and with the innovation can happen. But on a whim not build an innovative economy. Which strategy suits Russia?
-o: This is a responsible choice. Simplifying somewhat, there are four strategies for innovative growth in the world. The first - the total lead in all directions, to aspire to the United States. But it is expensive, the risks are too great. We can afford to direct competition with the United States only in the areas of national security. The second - to overtake the development of the massive borrowing of technologies. This brilliantly developed by Japan, South Korea, today - China. The same goes through successfully the Russian mobile sector. It is based on fundamental discoveries Zhores Alferov, but we do not have a penny, do not smell Russian innovations. But since there has competitive environment and stored brainpower, some time in this sector will be demanded by our science and Russian will be and innovations. The third - the localization of innovation, when invited foreign companies in exchange for access to natural resources with the condition for the transfer of advanced technologies for the extraction, exploration and research location and manufacturing in the country. Such a choice 30 years ago has made Norway, when deposits were discovered on the shelf, and the Norwegians fished and drank vodka. Today Norway has a cluster of advanced technologies and izsyrevogo appendage of Europe has turned into an exporter of innovation. Now the path follows the Saudi Arabia. The fourth strategy - double innovations both in the military and civil sectors. A striking example - the American GPS. The strategy used by the Pentagon`s budget, which is complemented by means of the consumer market. GPS receivers market 5 years ago was $ 15 billion. The price of each navigator laid the costs of development constellation. Also created drones, which are needed not only military, but also foresters, geologists and firefighters. A major achievement of the strategy - the Internet.
Which strategy is best? I was familiar with the Nobel laureate Wassily Leontief, a native of Russia. He was interested in our country, do not forget the language, but the curve amusing called "whore", mixing Russian with English "curve". Leontiev said economist task - to competently make a menu selection of dishes - for a politician.
Russia should stop rushing between slogans and choose a strategy and a clear and hard to stick to it for at least 20 years. I am absolutely sure that in the end we will all conceived. I repeat: Russian - creative people, we lack the skills and opportunities to take risks. Let us then lay in the risk of a national strategy!
in: Innovations arise at the intersection of social needs, demand and the technical proposal, which has its own logic of development. What awaits the society and that can offer him the science in the near future?
-o: In search of the crossing - the secret of innovation. Important supply and demand balance process. Today, the effective demand is directed to Internet technology, which give 25% of GDP growth in the EU. Is solvent demand for energy efficiency, alternative fuels, eco-friendly technologies for medicine - childhood diseases, genetic testing, a healthy old age. Technological offer - global telecommunication network with personal access. As well as "seamless" convergence of fixed and mobile technologies, the package quadra play (information, communication, monitoring, control, entertainment), the integration of high-speed lines with small networks and "heavy" content. In addition, the convergence of NBIC technologies (nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, cognitive science). There will be a rapid rise of nanotechnology. After 2020 probable civilization fracture associated with the bioeconomy, as recently I read in the "Proceedings".
Scientist road science rather than a yacht with eggs Faberge
in: Innovative dawn over Russia can prevent that no one will take the flag in his hands. Brain drain continues - and not only in the West. Even more internal emigration from science to business. Few graduates even elite technical universities working in their specialty.
-o: This is the biggest and bo-leznennaya problem. In my estimation, since 1990 abroad has left about one million professionals who made up the intellectual cream of the nation. I fear that this could lead to genetic changes to the nation`s degradation. Recently I was in the Kremlin, where the president was presented by young scientists awards. God grant that they are not left! Scientist to do science, you have a little - housing, tolerable wages, equipment status in society. Yachts and Faberge eggs do not need a scientist, but he is indispensable country. It is no accident, only three things are in all countries the same price - oil, diamonds and brains.
in: If, as you say, the Russian people are not by nature stretches to innovation, why do you feel so much pain for their future? Something personal?
-o: My father most of his life he worked as deputy chief designer of the famous "Saturn" in Rybinsk, where they make aircraft engines. My father was an ocean cruise aircraft carrier group "Minsk", where fighting vehicles were tested with its engines. I myself graduated from MAI, is still close friends with those who have given life aircraft. From his father remained layouts and photographs of products, which even professional pilots have never seen. Believe me, I know whereof I speak when I assert that Russia at the correct pos SETTING makes perfect innovative future.